by kevin, on July 17th, 2009
Today’s Morning Edition on NPR featured an article about a new research study that shows a potential connection between temperature and economy. The online article, titled Hot Climates May Create Sluggish Economies, by David Kestenbaum, declares that many factors need to be considered (including chance historical accident and impact of past colonization), but that it’s clear that if you list all countries in order of wealth, the poorest countries also fall in the hottest parts of the world. Since too many factors may be the root cause, researchers looked within countries. What happens when temperature increases? Comparing annual variations, they found that increased temperature corresponds to a drop in gross domestic product among poorer countries. The same temperature increase had less impact on wealthier countries.
Scientist Jared Diamond, author of the amazing book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, covers this issue from a different angle in one of his previous books titled Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. In it, Diamond argues that differences between wealthy and poor countries are not due to popularly-believed historical cultural differences. Instead, their disparity is linked to environmental factors. Of particular interest are his observations of geographical differences between continental land mass orientation. Continents with east-west orientation (Europe and North America) have relatively similar climate, those with north-south orientation (South America and Africa) have dramatically different climate. In addition to land mass geography, South America and Africa also fall on the equator. Cultures with similar climatic conditions develop similar crops, domesticate similar animals, are less isolated, have been more dependent upon each other, and much more. Either through trade, cooperation, or conquest, the advancement of similar civilizations spreads more easily under these conditions.
Could there be a connection between economy, temperature, climate, and geography? This seems pretty deterministic, as if cultures on certain continents have no choice or chance. But maybe there is a relationship. If so, what does this mean in a time of warming climate? Debate on cause will unfortunately continue for a while (though I believe human impact is absolute), but global temperatures are rising and will continue to rise through the remainder of the twenty-first century. The study suggests that GDP in wealthier countries will be less affected than in poorer ones. Climate change is very likely to have a more devastating impact on people who have contributed least to the problem.
Check out this NPR article and let us know what you think. Here’s the audio for the broadcast - Download 20090717_me_02